If it feels like a really long time since the Sailors last played, that’s because it has been 2 weeks since our Sailors were last in action, when they deservedly lost 3-0 to Jeonbuk in the Jeonju World Cup Stadium. I’ve summed up my thoughts in the post-match thoughts article, so if you haven’t read it yet, please go take a look.
So do we have a better shot at picking up a point or even all three? Let’s jump straight into the preview then!
Smaller Astroturf Pitch
In the official club interview, Super had this to say –
“It’s going to be a different game here because it is hotter here than in Korea, the field is smaller and we are playing on an artificial surface. Jeonbuk play really nice football, but we are going to make it tough for them,”
So that got me checking – what exactly is the size difference? Turns out, actually it’s quite substantial. (stats taken from transfermarkt.com)
Smaller Pitch
Jalan Besar Stadium – 98m x 64m
Jeonju World Cup Stadium – 105m x 68m
In the post-match article, I talked about how Jeonbuk’s wingers exploited our defence on the wings, and I just wonder, now that the pitch is significantly smaller, whether we will be able to contain them a little better. Don’t look down on what may seem like a measly 4m difference. Especially when we are playing 5 at the back, there will be less space for each defender to cover width-wise.
Length-wise, it also allows us to get from back to front that little bit quicker, and that may suit us on the counter-attack.
Artificial Pitch
It is no secret that foreign teams that come here absolutely hate playing on our astroturf. The ball bounces different, the surface is hard for the players, and it takes a while for teams to get used to it. Some of the greatest nights in Home United’s AFC Cup history were achieved under the lights on the bouncy astroturf pitch at Jalan Besar Stadium.
If you cast your mind back a couple of months, you will remember that a technically proficient team like Bangkok United also took more than a half to get to grips with the astroturf surface.
Am I clutching at straws? Maybe a bit – we still did ultimately lose to Bangkok United, and Singapore’s national team has also lost games before at Jalan Besar despite this supposed pitch advantage. But hey, something is better than nothing.
Jeonbuk’s FA Cup Final Defeat
Jeonbuk come into this game having led 1-0 and 2-1 against bitter rivals Pohang Steelers in the Korean FA Cup Final. However, 3 goals in the span of 17 minutes ensured that they will not finish with any domestic silverware this season.
How will that affect them coming into tonight’s game? It’s anyone’s guess, really. They might be angry and want to bounce back immediately, or they might still be hurting and turn in a listless performance. Or it might be something in the middle – this is not a computer game after all where morale is measured in terms of quantifiable numbers.
Let’s try to make an educated guess by looking at their form this season after suffering a loss. Considering Jeonbuk on paper should have easily been the top 2 or 3 teams in Korea this season, it is quite surprising to see that on five separate occasions, they followed up a loss with a draw/loss. I have highlighted those occasions where they did not bounce back with a win by bolding those lines.
25 Feb 2023 – lost to Ulsan, drew with Suwon Bluewings
19 Mar 2023 – Lost to Daegu, lost to Pohang Steelers
15 April 2023 – Lost to Suwon
26 April 2023 – Lost to Daejeon Hana Citizen, lost to Gangwon, draw with Seoul
29 May 2023 – Lost to Pohang Steelers
24 June 2023 – Lost to Gwangju
21 July 2023 – Lost to Pohang Steelers
19 Aug 2023 – Lost to Ulsan, draw with Daejeon Hana Citizen, draw with Jeju United, lost to Gangwon
30 Sep 2023 – Lost to Daegu, lost to Bangkok Utd
Does this suggest that they do not have mental strength and cannot bounce back? No I don’t think so. I just checked to find out if there was a trend, but it doesn’t seem like there’s anything noteworthy there. I already did the work though, so I thought I’d just share!
Rest Time
What may be more crucial though, is the rest time that the Sailors have had compared to their Korean counterparts. Since the last time we faced Jeonbuk, they have played 3 matches in 7 days, culminating in that cup final loss to Pohang Steelers.
While there has been some rotation, key midfielder Paik Seung Ho has started all 3 games, and the hope of course is that fatigue will help to take some of the sharpness off the Jeonbuk players. While following the FA Cup final on the weekend, I was secretly hoping it would drag on to extra time, and then to penalties, to prolong the game, and add some unwanted minutes into those tired legs, rendering them a weaker prospect to deal with.
The obvious counter to this point is simply that Jeonbuk rested 4 key first-team players against us and still came away with a handsome victory last time they faced us – so perhaps their strength in depth will make this less of an issue for them.
Must-Win Game
I don’t think much more needs to be said once you look at the table. Should Jeonbuk beat us, they’ll go up to 9 points, and we’ll be stuck on 3. Assuming Bangkok United beats Kitchee, then Bangkok will be on 12 pts, Jeonbuk on 9, and even if we win our last two fixtures, Jeonbuk just needs 1 more point from their games against Bangkok United and Kitchee to ensure we do not finish in 2nd.
A draw gives us some hope, I guess, although winning the last two remaining games will still be crucial, and then we are reliant on Jeonbuk slipping up again.
So….no pressure, lads? Haha
Conclusion
Once again, it will be a tough game. The fact that it’s a home game, and the factors listed above may make it a bit harder for Jeonbuk, but they’re still a top, top team. 2 times ACL winners, 9 times K-League winners. Just look at the highlights of this game to see the level of the K-League and compare it to the SPL – these guys play tough games week in week out. We don’t play matches with opponents anywhere near the same intensity often enough.
But what is football if we can’t dream? If we hold them off a bit longer than 5min, if our fans can cheer that much louder, if we get a bit of luck in both penalty areas when we defend and when we attack, who knows? A shock may be on the cards.
If you’re headed down tonight, let’s make Jalan Besar Stadium a fortress. Let’s make it rock. Let’s make it a night to remember, win, lose or draw.
COME ON YOU BOYS IN BLUE!
Score Prediction
Joseph and I predict the scores and track our success in a table. Stay tuned to find out who is the prediction king!
3 points for exact scoreline predicted correctly, 2 points for predicting the winner and margin of victory correctly (but not the exact scoreline), and 1 point for predicting the outcome correctly (win, lose or draw).
Eddy’s prediction: Sailors 1 Jeonbuk 1
Joseph’s prediction: Sailors 2 Jeonbuk 1
And here’s the leaderboard –
Written by Eddy Hirono
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