Author name: Chin Heng Tan

Just as we are about to embark on the 2nd half of the 2024/25 SPL season, I thought it would be a good opportunity to do a mid-season statistical review of Sailors’ performances so far, and attempt to provide some insights into what we can expect in the 2nd half of the season. If you have read recent SFT articles, you would have realized that Eddy and I have been manually tracking SPL stats from this season (because nobody else seems to be doing it). Now that we have half a season worth of data, we can attempt to draw some meaningful conclusions from this data set through developing a ‘Justice Table’. (Editor’s note: Please note also that xG stats are taken from sofascore.com – Chin Heng painstakingly tracks them every game to come up with this table) Justice Table – Simi Lai Eh? Football is a low-scoring, high-variance game where the better team doesn’t always win. There is a lot of luck involved in each game, so the actual SPL table contains plenty of ‘noise’. Unlucky finishing, a bad offside call, or an unfortunate deflection all have an impact on the actual result of a game. What we attempt to do with the Justice Table is to remove such variance from the equation and find out what the league table would look like in a world where teams were ranked based on their performances alone. Methodology As we demonstrated in earlier articles, it is possible to do a Monte Carlo Simulation of each match using raw xG data of each shot that occurred in the game. In order to generate a Justice Table from xG data: What is xG? xG is essentially just the probability of a goal being scored from a particular shot, hence using xG to generate a league table removes the element of luck from a result. In our last game against Tampines, Shawal scored from 2 chances of 0.04 and 0.12 xG respectively, allowing us to escape with a point. However, simulations showed that we were extremely lucky to get anything from the game, with Tampines winning 87.3% of simulations and a draw occurring only 10.2% of the time. On another day, those 2 Shawal chances could have gone wide or be saved by the keeper and we would now be level on points with Tampines. Note that there are some flaws in the xG metric, most notably that it ignores the game state. A team that scores a goal early on may choose to sit back and defend that lead, inevitably generating less xG for the rest of the game and conceding more xG, making the game appear closer than it actually was. The xG concept also assumes that all players have roughly the same finishing ability, and what differentiates a good striker from an average one is their ability to get themselves into positions of good xG quality in the first place. However, this model still passes the ‘eye test’ as we often expect to see better teams dominating a game by generating more and better-quality chances, which in turn accumulates higher xG and expected points to quantify their dominance. Results With the methodology outlined above, the 2024/25 mid-season Justice table looks like this: Some observations: Conclusion I think we can expect the title race to go all the way to the last few games of the season, with Tampines unfortunately being slight favourites despite being 2nd in the league right now. However, there are still a number of variables that could alter the equation for the 2nd half of the season: fatigue from continental games and the AFF championship, mid-season transfers, and squad depth could all play an important role in how the rest of the season shapes up. (Editor’s Note: An interesting point to note also is how Tampines makes use of the extra foreigner slot when Kyoga becomes Singaporean and thus frees up a slot. If they have the budget to get someone with true quality, things might be interesting) Hopefully, when 24th May 2025 rolls around, it will be the team in blue lifting the SPL trophy! (Editor’s Note: EH OH EH OH) Written by Tan Chin Heng Edited by Eddy Hirono If you’d like to support the work we do here at SailorFanTalk, you may want to visit https://ko-fi.com/sailorfantalk and leave us a tip!

Chin Heng chips in with yet another guest article, this time detailing my time with him exploring Brunei. This might be useful for any Sailors or indeed any SPL fan who intends to make the trip across to watch an away game in Bandar Seri Begawan. We apologise for not being able to check out more sights as we were only there for 2 days 1 night – till next time! So you have probably heard the story by now – a few over-enthusiastic fans, including myself, booked a trip to Brunei to watch Sailors play against DPMM on 15th June. We assumed that the game would be in Brunei because, well, the SPL announced that it would be in Brunei when the fixtures were announced. Maybe we shouldn’t have put so much faith in Brunei DPMM and SPL. An announcement was made that the game would be relocated to Singapore on 18th June, just 8 days before the original date of 15th June. Fortunately, an extra 7 days was apparently more than enough for DPMM to fix the ‘technical issues’ that they couldn’t resolve over the 6 months of the off-season, and they finally played at the Hassanal Bolkiah National Stadium on 22nd June against Geylang. What a game that was too, and I can only imagine what it would be like to watch a game in that majestic stadium ☹. Anyway, after Eddy and I decided to make lemonade with those Bruneian lemons and spend two days sightseeing in Brunei, we thought it would be a good idea to write some sort of guide to Brunei. DPMM will (probably) be playing the rest of their home games (maybe) in Brunei (perhaps) so our fellow fans could get a sense of what to expect, in case they wanted to make the trip to Bandar Seri Begawan for the next DPMM away game. (spoiler: we think it will be an enjoyable away day experience!) Currency You don’t need to visit the money changer before travelling to Brunei because the Brunei dollar is pegged to the Singapore Dollar at par (i.e. 1BND=1SGD). In Singapore, you may have encountered merchants who do not want to accept Brunei notes, but there is no such issue in Brunei, as Singapore notes and coins are widely circulated there. The only minor inconvenience we encountered was at a parking fee payment machine which did not accept Singapore notes, so we had to run to a nearby restaurant to ask to swap notes. Other than that, every shop we came across accepted Singapore dollars without batting an eyelid. Note that credit cards are not accepted at many smaller malls and restaurants, so plan the amount of cash you need to bring along accordingly. We also noticed that prices of fast food and major brands (like Nike/Adidas) are similar to or even slightly higher than Singapore, though food options at the night market was very cheap, with the prices of many items starting at a dollar. Getting to Brunei There are very few direct flight options from Singapore to Brunei, two to be exact. Singapore Airlines and Royal Brunei operate 1 daily flight each to a very small Brunei International Airport in Bandar Seri Begawan, the capital city of Brunei. The Singapore Airlines flights have slightly better timings for an away day as it arrives in Brunei in the late morning and flies out of Brunei in the afternoon, ideal for a 2 to 3 day trip over a weekend. As a result of the limited options, air ticket prices do tend to be on the expensive side for a 2-hour flight, and you can expect to pay between $500-$700 for a flight to Brunei. A cheaper option is available if you have previously accumulated miles under Singapore Airlines’ Krisflyer programme, subject to redemption availability. Krisflyer also runs occasional ‘Spontaneous Escapes’ promotions with 30% off redemption prices to certain locations, which was what Eddy and I took advantage of. Do note that some redemptions or purchases under promotions can be non-refundable. Eddy and I found out to our horror that ours was non-refundable, and that’s why we made our way to Brunei despite the game being relocated. Getting Around Brunei Once we had the flights sorted, we had to figure out how to get around in Brunei. Bandar Seri Begawan is a small city, but the public transport system is not very well developed. There is no subway system and only a handful of public bus services available. The best way to get around Bandar Seri Begawan is either to rent a car or use their ride hailing app Dart. We rented a car at $180 for 2 days and it turned out to be a brilliant decision – all major attractions in Bandar Seri Begawan were within a 15-minute drive, parking was cheap and easily available in most places, and at ~50 cents a litre, petrol was literally cheaper than water in Brunei (our petrol expenses added up to a grand total of $4 for the 2 days lol). With a car you also get the added advantage of leaving your bags inside while you explore the town, and given the super low crime rate in Brunei, this is definitely something we felt safe doing. The Stadium Even though the game was postponed, we dropped by the Hassanal Bolkiah National Stadium anyway, perhaps hoping to pick up hints of the ‘technical issues’ that led to the relocation of the game. (Till today, Eddy and I don’t believe there were really any technical issues, but we have no proof, so … zip) The stadium was conveniently located next to the airport, and it took us only 7 minutes to drive there after picking up our rental car. There was nothing going on in the vicinity of the stadium, and we came across more stray dogs than humans in our short walk around the perimeter of the stadium, but what a beautiful stadium it was. The main grandstand

In this SailorFanTalk special, we have guest writer Tan Chin Heng contributing yet another article! Chin Heng joined The Crew and SailorFanTalk in away trips for the ACL last season, and is an avid traveller, taking in football and rugby matches far and wide. Taking lessons from places he has travelled to, here he writes about his wishlist as a supporter for the season ahead! With the first two games of preseason gone, it feels like the SPL is well and truly back! Okay not really, since our first pre-season game featured exactly zero first-team regulars, and a smattering of first-team players got some minutes in the second game. Nonetheless, it was still some minutes for our younger players, and it was also good to see familiar faces back in Bishan stadium after a few months. As we countdown to an exciting new season with (possibly) 10 teams in the SPL, as well as our first foray into ACL2, I thought it would be a good time to take stock of how the club did last season off the pitch, and also come up with a wishlist of some improvements that I would love to see in the coming season. Our Sailors are always at the forefront of new initiatives on and off the pitch to elevate the scene in Singapore, so I am hopeful some of these changes will happen. What the Sailors Did Well Last Season Our 2023 season can be described as solid, with our first Singapore Cup title as well as credible performances in the ACL against some of the best teams in Asia. Off the pitch, Sailors have also done well in a number of areas: Communication with Fans Over the past season, I think the club has done a commendable job at communicating with fans in general, as we receive frequent updates and content through email newsletters and social media. Every matchday we are inundated with matchday content, pre-match videos and interviews before the game, live updates during the game, and match recaps post-game. We also enjoyed quality content in other areas, as we got to see players and staff not just in a football context. Things like Mothers’ Day videos and articles, the International Womens’ day articles (one of which won Story of the Year at the FAS Awards Night), fun and games on tiktok etc. clearly took plenty of effort to put together, so kudos to the team for bringing such a wide variety of content to us and I would love to see more of the same in the coming season. Matchday Experience A lot of work has also gone into crafting an enjoyable matchday experience for fans last season. There were several F&B options available at the stadium (beer, nachos, burgers, pizza) and we also saw a decent selection of merchandise on matchday (jerseys, training kits, t-shirts, keychains, tote bags etc.). The variety of halftime entertainment also brought some additional buzz into the stadium – contests for fans and performances (and T-SHIRT MAN) were good ways to bring some excitement into an otherwise boring 15-minute interval. Fan Engagement and Giveaways Throughout the season, we saw many contests and giveaways organized by the club, from match tickets and merchandise to fully sponsored away trips to ACL games. I was fortunate enough to be a recipient of a sponsored trip for the ACL away game in Hong Kong (paid for the other two away trips myself), and the experience certainly made me feel appreciated as a Sailors fan. All of these giveaways were not only fun to participate in but also presented an opportunity for the club to ‘pull’ more fans in. I could certainly see a casual follower being converted into a die hard fan if they won, say, a match ball signed by the whole first team. While plenty of good work has been done for fan engagement and the matchday experience, it would be great to see further improvements in these areas (just like how the team strives to improve on the pitch to compete against the best in Asia), which brings us to the next topic. Wishlist for Next Season Without knowing the inner workings of the club, I would make a reasonable assumption that the goals / objectives of the club off the pitch include building a strong fan community (increasing overall numbers of fans attending games as well as building a core group of highly engaged fans). With that in mind, there are a list of things that I would love to see in the upcoming season, based on anecdotal experience from talking to fellow fans and also experiencing league games in other countries. Greater Variety of Merchandise While the club has provided a decent selection of merchandise last season, I think there is still some demand for a greater variety of Sailors’ merchandise. It would be great to see a greater variety of apparel (polo tees, jackets, shorts) as well as smaller items that are easy to use in our daily lives (shoe bags, phone/airpod casing, pouches, luggage tags etc.). Perhaps even some novelty items such as trading cards or jigsaw puzzles? Most importantly, I hope to see a jersey printing/customization service made available on matchday as fans currently need to jump through quite a few hoops if they want to get any printing done for their jersey. I also noticed that not all the merchandise available on matchday was available on the Shopee store, so ideally we can see the full catalogue of merch available on Shopee in the coming season. In an era of rampant consumerism there are probably a good number of fans who are willing to spend on anything with a Sailors logo on it, so please Sailors, take my money. Wider Engagement of Fans and More Benefits for Season Pass Holders Season ticket holders are typically the most loyal supporters of any football club, turning up to almost every game rain or shine. It is thus essential to keep this

In this SailorFanTalk special, we have a guest writer, Tan Chin Heng! Chin Heng joined The Crew and SailorFanTalk in Korea for our clash against Jeonbuk, and then extended his trip to take in a K League 2 match. Here he writes about his experience and what lessons can be applied to the SPL scene. “Football is nothing without fans”. Familiar words that have been uttered by many, most notably by former Celtic / Scotland manager Jock Stein and Manchester United legend Sir Matt Busby. As we ride off into the sunset of the 2023 SPL season, we have an opportunity to take a step back and move our focus off the pitch to look at the most important aspect of football – the fans. Images of empty stadiums in the Covid-19 era may still be fresh on our minds, and that hollow feeling of watching games without any noise in the stands reminds us that fans really are an indispensable part of the beautiful game. A Fan Watching the Fans As an avid groundhopper, I’ve had the pleasure of visiting stadiums and watching football in over a dozen (and counting) different countries, and the most memorable moments I have witnessed at games have been off the pitch. I have seen thousands of Hibernian fans jumping in unison while singing their hearts out at an away European tie while 8-0 down on aggregate, 70,000 fans erupt in joy as Bruno Fernandes scored a late penalty against Nottingham Forest to complete an improbable 3-2 comeback, Spurs fans singing late into the night at Camp Nou after scoring a last-gasp equaliser against Barcelona to send them through to the Champions League knockout rounds. From the hallowed grounds of Old Trafford to the waterlogged pitch at Toa Payoh Stadium, whenever I go to a game I usually spend a good chunk of time observing the hardcore fans rather than watching the football itself, because the fan culture makes all the difference in a matchday experience. Over the course of this ACL campaign, I also had the privilege of attending all 3 LCS away games with the Crew. I travelled to Hong Kong as one of the winners of the contest held by the club, and to South Korea and Thailand on my own to meet up with the Crew over there. I think all those who travelled to our away games can agree that we have taken valuable lessons from watching fans of other clubs and countries in action, and we wanted to take what we learnt and apply it to the SPL because we realized it’s not just about the football, but the quality of fan culture in Singapore as well. Saying Annyeong to Anyang In today’s article, I am taking you to our second ACL trip in Korea. Not to the Jeonbuk game (that 3-0 loss has since become a repressed memory buried deep in my consciousness), but to Anyang, a city just south of Seoul with a population of 600,000. A few of us extended our trip after the ACL game and were staying in Seoul for the weekend. Being football fans, we naturally wanted to check out the local league. I remember being a little bummed that there were no other K League 1 games near Seoul that Saturday, so after a bit of research we “settled” on watching K League 2 (the second tier of Korean football) instead, as there was a game at Anyang which is about a 45-minute subway ride away. As we made our way to Anyang Stadium on match day, I was not expecting much from the game. For context, Anyang were playing against Seoul E-land FC at the tail-end of the K League 2 season. Both teams had hardly anything to play for, at best Anyang had an outside chance of making the promotion playoffs if they won all their remaining games and a bunch of other results went their way. In essence, this game was pretty much a dead rubber and I was expecting perhaps a few hundred fans, a small stadium, a flat atmosphere. Never have I been so wrong. Matchday As we walked up to the main gate of Anyang stadium, we saw the first signs that we were in for a special matchday experience as we were greeted by a wave of purple everywhere, the home colours of Anyang FC. Right beside the stadium entrance was a well-stocked merchandise booth and a ticketing counter fully decked in purple, with hundreds of fans in their purple home jerseys getting ready to enter the stadium. After taking some time to sort out our tickets and raid the merchandise booth, we walked through the entrance gate and were greeted by two giant inflatable mascots in sight just beyond the gates dressed in the home jersey. The first surprise was the atmosphere that we immediately felt once we entered the stadium. It didn’t feel just a football game – it felt more like some sort of festival. Anyang Stadium was not a ‘proper’ football stadium, so it also had running tracks along the perimeter of the pitch. However, stands were built on the running tracks along the two long sides of the pitch for fans to be closer to the action, and the remaining area of the running tracks housed the giant mascots, food trucks, and an area for kids to play some football-related games. It seemed like a perfect way for friends and families to spend a Saturday evening. We took some photos, got some fried chicken from one of the food trucks, and settled down into our seats to soak it all in. The next surprise came as we approached kick-off. Like many of the clubs in Korea, Anyang had a pre-game song they would play on the big screens before the players came out of the tunnel. Just as the music started blaring on the speakers, the stand holding the Anyang ultras sprang into life. Dozens of flags waving in