The good news – Despite losing to Bangkok United away on Matchday 3, the Sailors’ progression into the ACL2 knockout stages is very much in our own hands, and two of our final three Group G games are also at home.
Not-so-good news – After that loss in Bangkok, there is no longer any room for error if we want to make the round of 16.
Permutations
Group G table
As it stands, the Sailors are 3rd in Group G, but the permutations for advancing to the knockout stages are fairly straightforward, keeping in mind that the tiebreaker for teams tied on points is the head-to-head record.
If we win all 3 of our remaining games, we are guaranteed to advance as group winners with 13 points. Even if Persib also get to 13 points, they would finish 2nd due to the head-to-head record.
If we beat Bangkok by at least 2 goals this week and beat Persib in the next game, we are guaranteed to advance to the knockout stages regardless of the result of our final away game against Selangor. These 2 potential home results would give us superior head-to-head records against both Bangkok and Persib, ensuring we cannot finish below 2nd.
Fail to win either (or both) of our remaining home games, and our ACL2 fate is no longer in our own hands, with an early exit a very real possibility. In this scenario, other results would have to go our way for any chance of advancing.
TLDR: We have to beat Bangkok by 2 goals this Thursday.
Sporting Merit?
The Sailors have been perfect in the league so far, sitting 5 points clear at the top of the table, scoring 22 and conceding only 2. The FAS has also done LCS (and Tampines) a huge favour by giving us byes into the Singapore Cup Semi-finals on ‘sporting merit’, effectively allowing the two teams to spend the next 1.5 months focusing on their continental campaigns. (While this greatly benefits us, I am not a fan of this arrangement in general. Winning a trophy by playing just 3 games doesn’t hold much meaning to me, and if we go further down this rabbit hole, why not just award us the 25/26 league title right now based on sporting merit too?)
On the continental front though, our form is a little bit worrying as we have lost 2 of our 4 matches across the ACL2 and Shopee Cup with no clean sheets, scoring 6 and conceding 7. We’ll also be missing Hariss through suspension and presumably Maxime through injury. However, it is worth noting that 3 of these 4 games have been away matches due to works at Bishan stadium, and we won our only home continental game so far this season.
We will have to bank on our home advantage this week, as we take on a Bangkok United side that have beaten the Sailors by a 1-goal margin on all 3 of our previous meetings.
The Bogey Team
Bangkok United have similarly been in good form in the league where they are currently best of the rest behind Buriram, and considering their perfect record over the Sailors so far, will be confident of getting a result at Bishan Stadium.
However, Bangkok have also struggled in continental competitions, having already lost to Persib and JDT. Their schedule has not been kind to them as well, having played 3 games since our last meeting in Bangkok (while Sailors only had to play 1 league game against Albirex). They just lost to relegation candidates Uthai Thani over the weekend after having a man sent off, with several key players playing the full 90 while chasing the game, and now also have an eye on the tough league fixture against Port FC coming up this weekend.
Our opponents will also be missing a key man in Richairo Zivkovic, who has not played any football since coming off injured in the first half in our 1-0 loss on 23rd Oct, and I think it is fair to assume that he will not be playing any part in this Thursday’s game as well.
With so much at stake and Bangkok United’s recent results showing that they are very beatable, there is no better time to claim the first win over our bogey team.
Conclusion
This is a massive month for Singapore football, with Sailor and Tampines fighting to advance in the ACL2, and that huge clash for the national team against Hong Kong on the 18th in Asian Cup qualifiers. Despite the horrible 6pm kick off timing, hopefully we can pack the stadium and get behind our boys!
SFT Predicted Line-up
Ivan
Safuwan – Bailey – Toni – Diogo
Tsiy – Rui – Song
Lennart – Anderson – Bart
SFT Score predictions
Chin Heng – 1-0
Ernest – 1-0
Bryan – 3-1
Reuben – 2-1
Joseph Chin – 2-1
Joseph Jireh – 2-0
Phelan – 3-1
Anatolii – 3-1
Written by Chin Heng
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