October 2024

[Preview] Lion City Sailors v Hougang United (Matches Are Finally Back)

After what seems like forever, especially after our Sailors had their last match in Bangkok postponed, we finally see our boys in action again. Apologies for the late preview – it’s gonna be really short as well. I’ve come down with a heat exhaustion injury + food poisoning over the last couple of days, and my body has been doing all sorts of horrible things. But never mind, off to the preview we go. The last 2 times we faced Hougang resulted in very routine victories – 4-1 and 7-1, and both times our players didn’t have to break a sweat. More of the same this time? The Obvious Dangermen – Stjepan Plazonja and Dejan Racic I referred to this guy as the SPL Podolski from the first time I started researching on him for the first preview article and all that I’ve seen so far has reinforced that opinion. It is genuinely impressive how powerful and direct he is on the left flank. Plazonja has 8 goals and 7 assists from Hougang’s 16 games so far, which works out to about a goal contribution per game. Truly impressive considering Hougang is a pretty goal-shy team. Of course of his 8 goals, 7 have been on his left foot, with the remaining goal taken on his right foot. We’ll go a long way if we can show him onto his right foot – but I’m guessing every team in the league knows that and still finds it incredibly difficult to stop. If Plazonja is the threat from the left, then Dejan Racic is absolutely the dangerman in front. With 12 goals he is the top-scorer in Hougang, and he profits a lot from Plazonja’s exploits down the left. 2 goals off his head, 3 on his left foot, and 7 on his right foot proves he is a versatile finisher, and we have to stop the service to him. The Return of Shahdan Sulaiman The last time we played Hougang, Shahdan was playing, but he was nowhere near his best as we easily demolished Hougang 7-1. That was 3 months ago when he just came back from injury, though, and in recent games we’ve seen him go back to his usual self. He has 1 goal and 3 assists this season, but more importantly, he has brought back some midfield presence to this Hougang team, which has added another dimension to the team – instead of just their usual long ball from the back. We’re gonna have to keep Shahdan quiet in midfield, and this seems like a game fit for someone like Song Ui-Young to play, because of his physicality, which may help to upset Shahdan’s rhythm a little. The Table Doesn’t Lie With all the nice stuff I said about Hougang in the above two sections, it would seem like I am predicting a really difficult game for the Sailors. However, despite the recent resurgence, Hougang still lie second from bottom, only above Tanjong Pagar United. Also, they are still goal-shy and the list of scorers is not a diverse one. Shut down Racic and shut down Plazonja and we should be fine. Conclusion I wonder if Coach Ranko will rotate again, given that we have a tough away trip in 5 days’ time against Persib, Whatever it is, I hope we have enough strength either in our starting XI or on the bench to save the game should it not go according to plan. COME ON YOU BOYS IN BLUE! My predicted line-up Izwan Mahbud Hafiz Nor, Lionel Tan, Bailey Wright, Toni Datkovic, Chris van Huizen Song Ui-Young, Hami Syahin Maxime Lestienne, Lennart Thy, Bart Ramselaar Score Prediction Joseph and I predict the scores and track our success in a table. Stay tuned to find out who is the prediction king! 3 points for exact scoreline predicted correctly, 2 points for predicting the winner and margin of victory correctly (but not the exact scoreline), and 1 point for predicting the outcome correctly (win, lose or draw). Eddy’s prediction: Sailors 4 Hougang 2 Joseph’s prediction: Sailors 6 Hougang 0 Written by Eddy Hirono If you’d like to support the work we do here at SailorFanTalk, you may want to visit https://ko-fi.com/sailorfantalk and leave us a tip!

[Preview] Lion City Sailors v Hougang United (Matches Are Finally Back) Read More »

[Specials] The Justice Table – an SPL Mid-Season Review by Chin Heng

Just as we are about to embark on the 2nd half of the 2024/25 SPL season, I thought it would be a good opportunity to do a mid-season statistical review of Sailors’ performances so far, and attempt to provide some insights into what we can expect in the 2nd half of the season. If you have read recent SFT articles, you would have realized that Eddy and I have been manually tracking SPL stats from this season (because nobody else seems to be doing it). Now that we have half a season worth of data, we can attempt to draw some meaningful conclusions from this data set through developing a ‘Justice Table’. (Editor’s note: Please note also that xG stats are taken from sofascore.com – Chin Heng painstakingly tracks them every game to come up with this table) Justice Table – Simi Lai Eh? Football is a low-scoring, high-variance game where the better team doesn’t always win. There is a lot of luck involved in each game, so the actual SPL table contains plenty of ‘noise’. Unlucky finishing, a bad offside call, or an unfortunate deflection all have an impact on the actual result of a game. What we attempt to do with the Justice Table is to remove such variance from the equation and find out what the league table would look like in a world where teams were ranked based on their performances alone. Methodology As we demonstrated in earlier articles, it is possible to do a Monte Carlo Simulation of each match using raw xG data of each shot that occurred in the game. In order to generate a Justice Table from xG data: What is xG? xG is essentially just the probability of a goal being scored from a particular shot, hence using xG to generate a league table removes the element of luck from a result. In our last game against Tampines, Shawal scored from 2 chances of 0.04 and 0.12 xG respectively, allowing us to escape with a point. However, simulations showed that we were extremely lucky to get anything from the game, with Tampines winning 87.3% of simulations and a draw occurring only 10.2% of the time. On another day, those 2 Shawal chances could have gone wide or be saved by the keeper and we would now be level on points with Tampines. Note that there are some flaws in the xG metric, most notably that it ignores the game state. A team that scores a goal early on may choose to sit back and defend that lead, inevitably generating less xG for the rest of the game and conceding more xG, making the game appear closer than it actually was. The xG concept also assumes that all players have roughly the same finishing ability, and what differentiates a good striker from an average one is their ability to get themselves into positions of good xG quality in the first place. However, this model still passes the ‘eye test’ as we often expect to see better teams dominating a game by generating more and better-quality chances, which in turn accumulates higher xG and expected points to quantify their dominance. Results With the methodology outlined above, the 2024/25 mid-season Justice table looks like this: Some observations: Conclusion I think we can expect the title race to go all the way to the last few games of the season, with Tampines unfortunately being slight favourites despite being 2nd in the league right now. However, there are still a number of variables that could alter the equation for the 2nd half of the season: fatigue from continental games and the AFF championship, mid-season transfers, and squad depth could all play an important role in how the rest of the season shapes up. (Editor’s Note: An interesting point to note also is how Tampines makes use of the extra foreigner slot when Kyoga becomes Singaporean and thus frees up a slot. If they have the budget to get someone with true quality, things might be interesting) Hopefully, when 24th May 2025 rolls around, it will be the team in blue lifting the SPL trophy! (Editor’s Note: EH OH EH OH) Written by Tan Chin Heng Edited by Eddy Hirono If you’d like to support the work we do here at SailorFanTalk, you may want to visit https://ko-fi.com/sailorfantalk and leave us a tip!

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[Preview] Port FC v Lion City Sailors (Can We Finally Score Away From Home?)

Again, I take a bit of a backseat this time as Joseph Chin (not to be mistaken with Joseph Jireh) very helpfully did all of the heavy lifting for this article, and I am very grateful. I present to you his lowdown on Port FC, and will then add on some of my thoughts and predictions at the end. The Lowdown on Port FC The Name Why are they named Port? A tribute to the Portuguese wine usually paired with dessert? Or are they located by the sea? Well, Port FC are founded and sponsored by the Port Authority of Thailand, and are one of the oldest clubs in the country. They had some initial successes in the 1960s before their current post-millenium golden era. The Port Authority of Thailand Stadium doesn’t pass muster for AFC competitions, so this match will be held in BG Stadium, familiar surroundings for our former player Irfan Fandi (Home United in 2016 and 2017), who just last season was part of the BG Pathum side who plays their matches there. Asian Pedigree Port FC faced Geylang United (aka International) in the 2010 AFC Cup Group Stage. The Eagles drew 2-2 away but lost 1-0 in Singapore. Port FC then managed to go all the way to the quarter-finals before they lost out to Kuwaiti team Qadsia SC. More recently, they had their best campaign in 2021 when they beat a weakened Guangzhou twice. Playoff round losses to Ulsan and Zhejiang in 2021/2022 and 2023/2024 meant they didn’t qualify for the Champions League again. The Man at the Helm Rangsan Viwatchaichok. Young rising manager who won the treble with Buriram in 2011 as a player, and served his original club BEC/Police Tero with distinction both as a player and manager. The former left back/defensive mid was capped 29 times for Thailand. Interestingly, he has played for Geylang United before from 2006 to 2007, and he holds the record for most appearances in the Thai League 1 with 439 appearances. Some Dangermen to Look Out For Port FC look fairly stacked from their recent recruitment drive, so here’s some players to keep an eye out for. Irfan Fandi: For the first time in continental competition, we face a Singaporean doing well overseas. With Isaac Honny (Ghana) and Noboru Shimura (Japan) also in contention at CB, their defence might be a tough one to break down, [Editor’s note – Think Noboru Shimura might be injured, he came off injured during the match against Buriram FC a fewe weeks ago] Frans Putros: Denmark born Iraqi CB/RB who was out injured before his callup against Oman in the recent international window. Recovered well enough to be on the bench against Prachuap last week. He also represented Denmark at the youth levels before being capped for Iraq 19 times. Asnawi Muangkalam: This name will be familiar to all Singapore fans, for what he did to Faris Ramli after he missed a penalty playing against Indonesia. What better way to avenge (then Sailor) Faris’s AFF Cup debacle when Shawal zips past the troll at full back and scores a long ranger (either by himself or have Maxime bend it in like against Zhejiang). and give him the ultimate back-handed compliment by (not) celebrating it in his face. Willen Mota: A familiar face since our encounters with BUTD last season. Last seen coming out as a super sub to score the late winner against Persib. Might end up going for the same trick again to catch our tired Sailors in defence when Felipe Amorim is subbed out. Bordin Phala: A mainstay for Port at club since 2018, and a scourge for our NT at various big tournaments (but thankfully not scored against our national team). A tricky winger who poses a threat himself, or when laying on the assists for his teammates, as you can see above. Playing Style Rangsan generally sets his teams up in a 4-3-3 formation, although he sometimes switches to a 3-4-3 or a 4-2-3-1. Against Persib, he opted for a rare 3-5-1-1. And that’s the Lowdown by Joseph Chin! Away Woes Set to Continue? I don’t quite know what it is, but our Sailors seem to be a completely different team when we play at home vs when we play away. It won’t help that Port is probably one of the strongest teams we will face this season. If you look at all our opponents, I think besides Buriram, no other team comes even close to the quality Port has. Buriram and Port of course, also benefit from playing in a much faster-paced league. As the saying goes – “iron sharpens iron”. Playing week in week out in a league of much higher intensity will mean that our Sailors will have to hang in there for long periods in this game. We will need to “suffer” before we can even think of playing our football. Before the match against CAHN, I hoped that we would do better than we did against Borneo. We can all see how that turned out. One thing that struck me about the CAHN game is how much faster the Vietnamese players looked compared to us, and we might see the same again tonight. They are 2nd in the table, behind the Buriram juggernaut. A few weeks ago, they managed to eke out a 0-0 draw against Buriram, while last week they fell 2-1 to fellow challengers BG Pathum. Do not be fooled by their recent run of form in the league, where they are winless in 4. They are still dominating games, and even in their loss against BG Pathum, they were far and away the better team, and made BG Pathum look like a mid-table team. A combination of poor finishing, bad luck and occasional bad defending has led to this run, but I believe it is nothing more than a slight blip for them. Conclusion I cannot in good conscience predict that our Sailors can go up there and

[Preview] Port FC v Lion City Sailors (Can We Finally Score Away From Home?) Read More »

[Post-Match Thoughts] Ranko’s Gamble Paid Off (Tampines 2 Sailors 2)

I won’t be the only one who felt a little apprehensive when I saw the starting lineup for our Sailors on Sunday evening. Maxime on the bench, no Bart and Lenny at all in the squad. Haiqal Pashia playing right wing-back. Youngsters like Bill and Carmona, starting in defence, Obren starting on the wing. On paper, this was certainly not the strongest Sailors line-up. My immediate thought was that this was a huge gamble, one with the upcoming fixture against Port FC in mind. Thankfully, the gamble paid off, and Tampines were unable to gain any ground on us. Let’s dive into some of my post-match thoughts. That Equaliser – Did we Get Lucky? There’s nowhere else to start, is there? Tampines looked on the verge of getting a crucial win with some good play in the second half, but were denied when Shawal Anuar leapt high into the air to plant a header on target. What happened next is the subject of much controversy. Syazwan grabbed the ball – but where? Was it over the line? The referee and assistant referee didn’t give it. The Sailors players were livid, and play continued for a bit before the ball finally went out of play. VAR continued checking, and in the end, the goal was given. But was it a slice of luck for us? In my opinion, yes. When the assistant referee and referee don’t see the ball cross the line, they cannot give the goal. So they didn’t. What comes next is while the play carries on, the VAR is checking to see if the ball did cross the line. Unlike in the English Premier League, there is no goal-line technology. There are also probably fewer camera angles, which is why the best angles were this two angles. With the greatest of respect to the VAR team, I am not sure that you can clearly give a goal with these 2 angles as your evidence. Other circumstantial factors come into play, such as Syazwan’s guilty look on his face, him having to roll the ball forward after accidentally taking it backwards, and the vehement protests of the Sailors players. All these may convince the refereeing and VAR team that the ball did indeed cross the line – however, none of this is 100%. Why does it need to be 100%? Well, because once the goal isn’t given, then the threshold for VAR to intervene and reverse that call is that it must be a “clear and obvious error”. The green between the ball and the line shows that it must have been really close, but it is not in and of itself a factor that guarantees the ball did cross the line. In my opinion, we got lucky here. Had the roles been reversed and Sailors conceded such a goal, I’d be livid. Shawal Anuar – Defying His Age Shawal gets better with age, doesn’t he? How does this man keep doing it? Speed of feet is one thing, speed of thought is another. For the first goal, we saw both. The former contributed to him outpacing Shah Shahiran, a man much younger than him. The latter contributed to him taking the shot on early, with his weaker foot, reading the situation quickly to realise that he just had to lift it above the retreating Syazwan. The former meant that he could close down Shah Shahiran’s shot in the first place, but it was the latter that saw the danger and responded to it. Sometimes you can try to analyse goals, but if you look at the paragraph above and break it down, you miss the point of the goal, the artistry of the goal. It would be like me trying to describe why Sydney Sweeney is a very good-looking person. Don’t do it, just enjoy. What a goal it was, and it will live long in the memory. If we thought that Shawal’s goal last season against Balestier Khalsa (also a left-footed first-time shot from near the halfway line) was good, then this is about 15458x better. Then the 2nd goal – just when I was remarking to the fans seated near me that we were not going anywhere with our repeated crosses into the box, Shawal leapt up like a salmon and proved me wrong. I should have never doubted him. Izwan + Zharfan I am so happy for Izwan. Right after I publish a long article discussing in detail how he could have done better in Hanoi, he goes and does this. A mature performance (both goals were not his fault), and a penalty save to boot. The perfect way to bounce back. On the flip-side though, you do feel for Zharfan. Imagine what’s going through his mind. He was replaced when the team was trashed 5-0 and he made 1 mistake. In midweek, Izwan made a couple of mistakes and the team was trashed 5-0. The next couple of days, he would have had to play the role of supportive teammate to Izwan, but inside he would have been wondering – “is this my chance?” Then came matchday, and the announcement of the starting lineup, and he would have felt a minor setback. If that wasn’t enough to reinstate him into the team, even in a rotated lineup, when will the chance come? To then sit on the bench, and watch as the rival for your place in the team saves a penalty – that must have led to all manner of conflicting emotions for him. Some fans remarked that while the team was being serenaded by the fans after the final whistle, he abruptly left and headed for the dressing room. I say we cut him some slack – it’s a tough situation to be in, and he is human after all. We are blessed to have two of the best goalkeepers in the land in our team (perhaps only bettered by Hassan Sunny and Naumovski) – so here’s hoping there’s some way

[Post-Match Thoughts] Ranko’s Gamble Paid Off (Tampines 2 Sailors 2) Read More »