The last time we played these opponents, it was the late, late show, with Shawal’s acrobatic goal giving us the lead only in the 86th minute of the game. Maxime Lestienne then added on some gloss with a truly fantastic curler from the edge of the box to seal the points. It was an unconvincing result, but performance-wise, we absolutely battered DPMM and it was only the heroics from Naumovski and some wasteful finishing which prevented us from scoring even more.
In this preview, I talk about how I believe our Sailors are primed to get yet another big scoreline. Let’s dive right into it.
Set-Pieces (Yes, Again)
By now you must be kinda bored of hearing this – but yes, our opponents are spectacularly bad at defending from set-pieces. They’ve conceded 7 goals from set-pieces this season, despite playing one game fewer than the most of the league. This is second-highest in the league, with the highest being Hougang, the team we vanquished at the weekend. One-third of the goals conceded by DPMM are from set-pieces.
Part of the explanation for this is the same as Hougang’s – just simply a lack of quality at centreback. Since Flottmann’s injury for DPMM, they have not looked the same side, and it is no wonder that they have already dipped into the market to search for new foreigners. They’ve signed a few already if transfermrkt.com is to be believed, but will have to wait for the transfer window to open before they can register anyone.
But those with a good memory will remember that Naumovski turned in a great performance against us the last time out, and is one of the more reliable keepers in the league. So surely he compensates a little for his centre-backs not being the most dominant?
Yes and no. While Naumovski has proven to be capable in the air, if we take a look at the 5 goals our centre-backs Bailey and Toni have got from corner kicks, you will realise that all of them were outswingers. 4 were delivered by Lestienne’s left foot, while the other was delivered by the right foot of Adam Swandi. What this does is that it negates his prowess in the air, because outswingers curl away from the keeper, and it is very unlikely that a keeper will come out for those unless it’s very poorly-placed, or it is a very slow ball.
Once again, you heard it here first – we’re gonna score from a setpiece.
DPMM are a Lucky Team with a Good Goalkeeper
I’ve already talked about Naumovski a little in the previous section – let’s talk about him a little more. DPMM has the 3rd-best defensive record in the league, with 21 goals conceded. Sailors and Tampines have each conceded 12, while Geylang have conceded 22. The rest of the league is in the region of 30.
However, if you take a look at xG allowed to their opponents, DPMM are actually near the bottom – only Young Lions and Albirex (of course) are worse.
Now, of course, many factors play into this. Quality of goalkeeper is one. If you give up tons of good chances, but your goalkeeper is class, then you’re gonna rack up a big xG allowed, but not actually concede goals. Other factors, such as wasteful finishing, and luck also come into the picture.
In the reverse fixture, the lingering memory is that DPMM did well to shut us out till the end, but in reality, it was a mixture of good goalkeeping and bad finishing. Take a look at the stats (DPMM in green, Sailors in blue).
You can almost guarantee if we create the same kind of chances in such a dominant display tomorrow, the scoreline will be very different.
Cruz Control
Despite starting the season late and missing the last two games with an injury, Julio Cruz remains DPMM’s joint-highest scorer with 4 goals. He also has 3 assists under his belt.
That’s 7 goal contributions in the 6 games he has played, which while not Maxime levels (21 goal contributions in 10 games), is still very presentable. I like him a lot because of his strength, skills and also his ability to use both feet. He almost scored against Zharfan in the last game with a 35-yard piledriver.
The official SPL site preview lists him as possibly making a comeback from injury, and whether he makes it not will be a crucial factor in determining whether we walk out of this match with a clean sheet. He is DPMM’s focal point in attack, and he has a real poacher’s instinct, scoring his 4 goals from only 2.54 xG.
Let’s hope he can’t make it back in time. Or maybe just maybe, he’s not out injured, and he just had a falling-out or something with his coach? I am just speculating of course, but it does seem strange that DPMM would go out and sign a 31-year-old Spanish striker (Sergio Mendigutxia) unless someone in their frontline is leaving.
It’s ParThy Time
Please excuse me for that terrible pun.
Jokes aside – Lennart Thy has been playing well, playing selflessly for the team, and contributing to wins. However, there hasn’t been a game yet where he forces everyone to take notice of him.
I think that time has come. He looked a relieved man with his 2 goals last week, and that may be all he needs against a weak backline. For context, Brunei’s national team is ranked 190th in the world, while Singapore’s is 160th. Without a foreign centreback, Lennart Thy is essentially going up against an all-Bruneian backline. He will have no better chance to plunder them for goals.
Hafiz Nor
Last but not least, Hafiz Nor hit his 100th appearance for the Sailors recently, and will be presented with a special commemorative gift by the club tomorrow. The presentation will take place after the pre-match warmup so be there early to applaud this legend of the club (both Home Utd and Lion City Sailors).
I think it’s a medical miracle how he doesn’t seem to slow down as he ages. I will never tire of seeing him run down the wing for us, and I will never tire of watching his acrobatic clearance for us last year in a match where we came back from 2-0 down to defeat Albirex 3-2.
Here you go – please watch it again and again and again.
Conclusion
I know I can’t fully justify it, but I think that despite only conceding 21 goals this season, DPMM are in for a real lesson. Luck can only take you so far. Good goalkeepers can only take you so far. Take a look at Albirex for example – they have the best goalkeeper in the league but yet are leaking goals left right and centre.
So I am going for an 8-0 victory. I just feel like the unfinished chances we didn’t put away in previous games will all just present themselves to the players again, and this time, it will be a goal.
COME ON YOU BOYS IN BLUE!
My predicted line-up
Izwan Mahbud
Lionel Tan, Bailey Wright, Toni Datkovic, Chris van Huizen
Rui Pires, Song Ui-Young, Hami Syahin
Maxime Lestienne, Lennart Thy, Shawal Anuar
Score Prediction
Joseph and I predict the scores and track our success in a table. Stay tuned to find out who is the prediction king!
3 points for exact scoreline predicted correctly, 2 points for predicting the winner and margin of victory correctly (but not the exact scoreline), and 1 point for predicting the outcome correctly (win, lose or draw).
Eddy’s prediction: Sailors 8 DPMM 0
Joseph’s prediction: Sailors 5 DPMM 1
Written by Eddy Hirono
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