[Preview] Hougang United v LCS – Walk in the Park?

The thing you should focus on most in this headline is the question mark. It is no surprise that LCS are huge favourites coming into this. While we stumbled last time out against Tampines Rovers, we must bear in mind that Tampines are unbeaten in a run that stretches all the way back 14 games to last season – they have been playing very well, and they were a tough opponent, as we illustrated in our preview. We have lost to Albirex and Tampines so far this season, but in all our other games, we have done enough to get the win. Some wins have been more convincing than others, but at least we are getting results, and I don’t think we played badly in those games.

Contrast that with Hougang United, who have lost 5 of the 6 games they have played, and in 3 of those losses, they even took the lead first. In fact if you look at their only victory this term, their 3-2 win against Balestier Khalsa, they came close to throwing away a 2-goal lead there too, when they allowed Balestier to come back to 2-2, but managed to grab a late winner. It is perhaps an understatement to say that they have been thoroughly unconvincing this campaign.

Soooooo walk in the park for the Sailors? Or walk in the park but then you look into the trees and see a pontianak (a type of ghost that loves hanging out in trees)? Let’s try to break it down.

Comparing 2023 to 2022

Trying to diagnose Hougang’s problems is a tricky task – you don’t quite know where to start. Let’s take a look at the stats comparison –

They are down in almost every statistic, except number of passes per game, and pass accuracy (which feed into a superior ball possession stat too). Worryingly, their chances created and number of key passes is almost half – which suggests that while they are holding the ball, they are not translating it to goalscoring chances – it is inefficient football, or “sterile possession”, a term used to describe late Wenger-era Arsenal, where the teams were accused of holding the ball for the sake of holding the ball.

But why is this the case?

No Shahdan, no Krajcek

One possible reason is that the team really misses their key players. Krajcek’s absence is perhaps the easiest factor to pinpoint.

Just this season, Hougang looked good against Geylang in the first half. Then, Krajcek went off, and they promptly collapsed and ended up losing that game. In 2 league games this season, Krajcek has 1 goal and 2 assists, a total of 3 goal contributions. Despite not playing since then, Krajcek has been involved in half of the total number of goals scored by Hougang – they have only scored 6 goals this season. This is a major problem.

If you look at last season’s stats as well, Krajcek has 12 goals and 17 assists from 33 games. That’s almost 1 goal contribution per game. Take that out from the team and attacking-wise, you’re bound to suffer.

Defensively, Krajcek also averaged 5.3 tackles and 4.4 interceptions per game. You’re perhaps beginning to see the real influence that Krajcek has on the team now – not just offensively, but defensively. This is why there was an excited flurry of activity near where I was seated in the Geylang v Hougang game when Krajcek went off – as the punters around me started talking about the possibility of having a wager or two on Geylang to come back in the game. Krajcek’s influence is obvious for all to see – he is the one who starts the moves, is in the middle of the moves, and also the one who finishes the moves.

Hougang’s acquisition of Shahdan could perhaps have helped alleviate the creative burden on Krajcek’s shoulders, but it is unfortunate that Shahdan himself has also been injured. Shahdan had 5 goals and 6 assists last season for the Sailors, and chipped in with an average of 0.66 key passes per game. This could have been helpful for Hougang, but he is also someone we do not need to contend with tonight.

Brian Ferreira

Simply put, his output is not good enough. When you watch him, it’s very easy to get frustrated, even as a neutral. 7 matches, no goals, 1 assist. That is not good enough for someone who is tasked with leading the attack or linking midfield to attack. Add to that the shocking stat that he has only made one key pass all season, and his lackadaisical approach to moving to get the ball from his teammates, or win the ball back, and it is no surprise that my friends who are Hougang fans are calling for his head.

Regardless of whether he is a foreign player or a local player – the above stats are simply not good enough. But of course, stats don’t always tell the full story, so sometimes the eye test comes into play. The eye test tells me that Brian Ferreira can’t be bothered to get the ball if it involves a full sprint. He is often jogging, or even walking, and that makes it hard for his teammates to get him the ball.

Interestingly, the last Hougang match I watched, when they surrendered a 1-0 lead to lose 2-1 to Tanjong Pagar, Brian Ferreira ran a lot more, and had a new determination to his game that I had not seen before in his previous 6 appearances. I am not sure why there has been such a change – it could be tactical, it could be that he was previously dealing with an injury, but whatever it is, hopefully tonight we see the Brian Ferreira of the last 6 games, and not the Brian Ferreira of the Tanjong Pagar game.

Shifting the Focus back to Sailors

Enough about Hougang United – let’s look at our own Sailors.

Doubtlessly, the expectation is that we will want to win this game. However, perhaps it’s my pessimism that has been developed as a natural reaction to Arsenal’s form over the years, where we’ll go into games that we are supposed to win easily but then end up with an embarrassing draw/loss – I always have this uneasy feeling when my team goes into a game as overwhelming favourites.

Other than that, there seem to be no new injury worries, and in fact, Bernie Ibini has been officially announced and may make the bench or even the starting lineup. Hopefully this will give the Hougang defence something else to worry about. I don’t know much about him as well, apart from Youtube compilations, but I guess you could make very nice 5-minute videos of just about every professional player so I will comment more on my thoughts about Bernie when we watch him in action.

Conclusion

With no new injury worries, and no other bad news filtering through from the Sailors camp, we must be considered as favourites for this game. Will Hougang snap their losing streak against us? I certainly hope not because this is not just a team that is down in terms of results – their performances have been poor too. We have no excuse for not winning this game, and I hope we can pair the result with a commanding performance as well.

Let’s hope it’s a walk in the park, but not a walk in the park where you end up meeting a hantu (ghost in Bahasa Melayu).

COME ON YOU SAILORS!

Score Prediction

Joseph, Ethan, and myself predict the scores, and track our success in a table. Stay tuned to find out who is the prediction king!

3 points for exact scoreline predicted correctly, 2 points for predicting the winner and margin of victory correctly (but not the exact scoreline), and 1 point for predicting the outcome correctly (win, lose or draw).

Eddy’s prediction: Hougang 1 Sailors 3

Ethan’s prediction: Hougang 0 Sailors 4

Joseph’s prediction: Hougang 0 Sailors 3

Written by Eddy Hirono

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